Kicking off the Great Depression of 2009 Blog -- The Kondratieff Wave?

Kicking off the Great Depression of 2009 Blog. (By the way - this domain is for sale)

I reserved the domain name 2009greatdepression.com about a year ago - and was surprised that it still existed. I saw this coming about 2-3 years ago - when I saw charts and other things - showing that the consumer had more debt than savings. And since Ben Bernanke killed off housing - by jacking rates over and over again in 2006 - no one could use their home equity like an ATM machine anymore.

I called the Federal Reserve back then and got Ben's secretary. I was upset that he kept (inexplicably) jacking rates month after month (and other policies - which indirectly caused mortgage rates to increase significantly at that time) - and I saw what it was doing to housing early on. He had no clue - and apparently didn't want to wait to see the effects. I told the secretary "Listen - I am a Real Estate broker and I see what his policy is doing to housing - and it is just starting. He needs to figure out how to get mortgage rates to come back down - or housing will tank - which will cause the collapse of many banks and the economy."

"Oh - don't worry - Mr. Bernanke knows what he is doing. I said "No he doesn't -- he isn't seeing what the housing market is doing. If he kills housing - everything will fall down like a house of cards. He needs to stop jacking the rate month after month. He isn't waiting to see the effects."

(I almost wondered if the man could really be that stupid - or if he was paid off by terrorists... ya know - the terrorists wanted to kill the US economy.....) (well - that is probably a bit far fetched eh? But it WOULD be great grist for a fiction novel.)

Granted - Greenspan was way too "loose" when he was in - but it was Bernanke that caused the current situation that we are in - in my opinion...(among many other factors such as loose lending standards - bad subprime loans - hedge fund stuff & much more)

And now - no matter how much BB tries to drop rates - it is too little - too late - as the dominos are falling and he is helpless to stop it. It is like pushing on a string.

Of course - what he really has to figure out - is how to get mortgage rates to come down. The Fed Funds rate is not that correlated to mortgage rates - though looser money does help to some extent.. Problem is - it isn't getting loose.

And with credit card lines tightening due to defaults - people just won't be able to spend.

There is a theory called the Kondratieff Wave

which I learned about in business school years ago. Human behavior repeats itself about every 80 years (though that chart had it being a bit less - so we were overdue.)

Here is a blog about it...

1929 to 2009 is 80 years....